[Article] Refining climate zoning in North Africa: A 30-Year analysis of heating and cooling degree days for energy planning and adaptation

Energy planning in hot and rapidly warming regions cannot rely on outdated climate maps.

In our new paper published in Energy and Buildings, we present one of the most comprehensive climate zoning analyses for North Africa, based on 30 years of meteorological data and degree-day analysis across the region.

🌍 Why this matters

North Africa is one of the regions most exposed to climate change and rising cooling demand. Yet many building standards and energy policies still rely on coarse climate classifications or outdated datasets.

Without accurate climate zoning, energy codes, building envelopes, and HVAC design strategies risk being misaligned with real climatic conditions.

📊 What this study does differently

✔ Uses 30 years of climate data (1989–2019) across North Africa

✔ Analyzes 108 weather stations across Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, Algeria, Morocco, and Western Sahara

✔ Calculates heating degree days (HDD) and cooling degree days (CDD) for multiple base temperatures

✔ Integrates NASA POWER climate datasets to improve spatial consistency

✔ Refines existing Köppen–Geiger climate classifications for energy planning purposes

This provides a data-driven climate zoning framework specifically tailored to the North African context.

🔍 Key findings

• Cooling demand dominates across most of North Africa and is growing in spatial extent and intensity.

• Heating needs remain significant in highland and Mediterranean regions, which are often overlooked in policy frameworks.

• Traditional climate classifications do not adequately capture the energy-relevant climatic variability of the region.

• Degree-day based zoning provides a more reliable basis for building energy standards and adaptation strategies.

📌 What this means

Energy codes, building envelope design, and urban planning strategies in North Africa should move toward dynamic, data-driven climate zoning rather than relying solely on conventional climate categories.

This is particularly critical as cooling demand accelerates under climate change, creating major implications for electricity systems, building design, and urban resilience.

👏 Author team

Mohamed Elhadi Matallah, Andreas Matzarakis, Aissa Boulkaibet, Atef Ahriz, Dyna Chourouk Zitouni, Fatima Zahra Ben Ratmia, Waqas Ahmed Mahar, Faten Ghanemi, Shady Attia

🏛 Institutions

University of Liège, University of Freiburg, Democritus University of Thrace, University of Biskra, University of Oum El Bouaghi, Echahid Cheikh Larbi Tebessi University, NUST Pakistan, and other international collaborators.

This work provides a robust climatic evidence base for future building energy regulations, climate adaptation policies, and regional energy planning across North Africa.

📘 Full article

https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/331542

📚 Learn more about our research

https://www.sbd.uliege.be/

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